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木材价格波动不仅关系到我国国有林场、森工企业以及林农等相关企业和人员的利益,还影响着我国林业经济的发展,对我国国民经济的发展也有重要影响。本研究利用经验模态分解模型对国內木材价格进行分解,在此基础上分别对各个波动分量进行影响因素的回归分析。结果表明:①国內木材价格受到两类短期组合因素影响,这两类因素的影响呈现出明显的周期性,影响周期长度分别为3年和6年。②分解出来的IMF1分量与森林资源、木材供给、木材市场和木材需求这四个方面相关指标具有较强相关性。IMF2分量只与木材市场和木材需求这两方面相关指标具有显著相关性。反映长期趋势的剩余分量与森林资源、木材供给、木材市场,木材需求和社会经济因素等五个方面相关指标均具有很强相关性。
The fluctuation of timber prices is not only related to the interests of the state-owned forest farms, forestry enterprises and foresters and other related enterprises and personnel in our country, but also the development of forestry economy in our country and also has an important impact on the development of our national economy. In this study, the empirical mode decomposition model was used to decompose the domestic timber prices. On the basis of this, regression analysis was conducted on the influencing factors of various volatility components. The results show that: (1) Domestic wood prices are affected by two types of short-term combination factors, and the influence of these two types of factors shows obvious periodicity with the impact period of 3 years and 6 years respectively. (2) The decomposed IMF1 component has strong correlation with the relevant indexes of the four aspects of forest resources, timber supply, timber market and timber demand. The IMF2 component has only a significant correlation with the relevant indicators on both the timber market and timber demand. The remaining components that reflect long-term trends are strongly correlated with the relevant indicators in five areas: forest resources, timber supply, timber market, timber demand and socio-economic factors.