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随着我国空中交通流量的日益增加,空中交通冲突现象日益严重,为了量化空中交通的安全性,对航空器之间的飞行冲突风险进行了研究。以冲突过程为研究对象,根据航迹误差服从高斯分布,计算三维冲突概率,结合冲突严重程度,计算冲突风险。以实际发生冲突的两架航空器为例,采用航迹数据进行仿真,该曲线可为管制员提供更好的决策和支持,并验证上述理论的正确性。
With the increase of air traffic in our country, the phenomenon of air traffic conflict is more and more serious. In order to quantify the safety of air traffic, the risk of flight conflict between aircraft is studied. Taking the process of conflict as the object of study, according to the track error obeying Gaussian distribution and calculating the probability of three-dimensional conflict, combined with the severity of the conflict, the conflict risk is calculated. Take two aircraft actually collided as an example and simulate with the flight path data, which can provide better decision-making and support for controllers and verify the correctness of the above theories.