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反倾销作为当代国际贸易活动中重要的贸易壁垒,被进口国当作限制进口、保护国内相关产业的重要举措频繁使用。然而,该政策的贸易保护预期是否真的得以实现还有待考察。利用2002年~2010年9起对华农产品反倾销案例中8位海关H.S.编码涉案农产品的出口数据,对国外对华反倾销措施在征收反倾销税后5年的贸易限制效应和贸易偏转效应进行实证分析,得出结论:反倾销税的征收会持续限制我国涉案农产品的出口;涉案出口企业在受征高额反倾销税时会通过向非指控国出口偏转以减少经济损失;考虑到市场的替代性,这种偏转更明显地集中于与发起国发展水平接近的发达国家,往发展中国家的偏转不明显。
Anti-dumping, as an important trade barrier in contemporary international trade activities, is frequently used by importing countries as important measures to limit imports and protect related industries in China. However, it remains to be seen whether the policy of trade protection is really expected to be realized. Taking the export data of 8 agricultural HS codes related to agricultural products from 9 cases of antidumping against agricultural products to China from 2002 to 2010, the author analyzes the trade restriction effect and trade deflection effect of foreign anti - dumping measures imposed by foreign countries on anti - dumping duties for 5 years after anti - dumping duties are imposed. Concluded that: the collection of anti-dumping duties will continue to restrict China’s exports of agricultural products involved; involved in export enterprises involved in high anti-dumping duties by deflating exports to non-accused countries to reduce economic losses; taking into account the market alternative, this Deviation is more obviously concentrated in the developed countries close to the level of development in the sponsoring country, and the deflections to developing countries are not obvious.