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投资仍是经济增长的最大驱动力当前市场普遍认为中国已经过度投资,因此无法再依赖投资来维持其经济增长。但我们并不认同这一观点。确实,在过去三十年中投资日益成为推动中国经济增长的重要驱动力。投资对GDP增长的贡献率由20世纪80年代的36%上升至90年代的39%,2000年后更是增至50.5%。固定资产投资以平均同比22%的增速扩张,到2011年,其占GDP的比重由20世纪80年的28.8%上升至46%左右(见图1)。由于固定资产投资包括对增速未形成增值的土地购买,其占GDP比重实际可能更高。近年来以投资为中心的刺激计划导致2009～2010年固定资产投资同比增长激增至近28%,投资占GDP比重跃升5个百分点。
Investment is still the biggest driver of economic growth The current market generally believes that China has over-investment, it can no longer rely on investment to maintain its economic growth. However, we do not agree with this view. Indeed, investment has increasingly become an important driver of China’s economic growth over the past three decades. The contribution of investment to GDP growth increased from 36% in the 1980s to 39% in the 1990s and even more to 50.5% after 2000. Investment in fixed assets expanded at an average growth rate of 22% YoY. By 2011, its share of GDP increased from 28.8% in 1980 to 46% (see Figure 1). Since the investment in fixed assets includes the purchase of land with no growth in value added, its share in GDP may actually be higher. In recent years, the stimulus package centered on investment has led to a sharp increase of fixed asset investment from 2009 to 2010 of nearly 28% over the same period of last year and an investment-GDP share of 5%.