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将计量经济学中广泛应用的面板数据分析方法应用到自然科学领域,基于黑河上游山区3个站点的气象水文年尺度数据及季尺度数据,对1959~2009年的降水、温度、潜在蒸散发与出山口径流量分别进行单位根检验、协整检验和格兰杰因果检验,讨论了不同气候要素与径流变化的关系。研究表明:面板数据分析方法同样适用于自然科学领域;各检验结果表明降水、潜在蒸散发对径流存在显著的效应,跟温度相比,潜在蒸散发对径流的影响更为显著,能够更好地表征水文特征;季节尺度上的分析更为细致的说明了降水和潜在蒸散发对径流的影响。利用面板回归模型对黑河流域上游气候变化对径流的驱动影响进行不同情景下的分析,以当前气候条件为本底,结果表明,若气温升高,降水增加,则降水对径流的驱动力减弱,降水减少,则降水对径流的驱动力增强;而降水的变化则不影响气温对径流的驱动作用。
The panel data analysis methods widely used in econometrics are applied to the field of natural science. Based on the meteorological and hydrological annual and meso-scale data of three sites in the upper reaches of the Heihe River, the precipitation, temperature, potential evapotranspiration Outlet flow were unit root test, cointegration test and Granger causality test, discussed the relationship between different climate factors and runoff changes. The results show that the panel data analysis method is also applicable to the field of natural sciences. The test results show that precipitation and potential evapotranspiration have significant effects on runoff. Compared with temperature, potential evapotranspiration has a more significant impact on runoff, Characterization of hydrological characteristics; seasonal scale analysis more detailed description of the impact of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration on runoff. The panel regression model was used to analyze the effects of climate change on runoff in the upper reaches of the Heihe River basin under different scenarios. Based on the current climatic conditions, the results show that if the temperature increases and the precipitation increases, the driving force of precipitation on runoff decreases, When precipitation decreases, the driving force of rainfall on runoff is enhanced; however, the change of precipitation does not affect the driving effect of temperature on runoff.