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目的分析西安市出生缺陷、空气污染的趋势变化和季节规律,探讨空气污染暴露与出生缺陷结局的相关性。方法利用时间序列乘法模型,分解出生缺陷发病人数和空气污染物浓度的时间序列,描述二者的长期趋势及季节变动;采用生态学研究思路,分析出生缺陷与空气污染物的秩相关和交叉相关关系。结果 2010-2015年西安市空气污染分析结果显示,NO_2总体趋势在2013年出现上升,随后在高水平波动;SO_2总体呈缓慢下降趋势,但在2012和2013年出现2次高峰;PM_(10)总体趋势在2013和2014年出现2个小高峰,其余时间变化较为平稳;PM_(2.5)总体趋势呈现缓慢下降,但在2015年后出现小幅上升。2010-2015年西安市出生缺陷分析结果显示,总出生缺陷和先天性心脏病的长期趋势在2010~2014年呈上升态势,之后迅速下降;唇腭裂和神经管畸形的长期趋势在低水平小范围波动。空气污染物与出生缺陷的相关性分析结果显示,总出生缺陷、先天性心脏病在孕前3个月和孕早期3个月与NO_2正相关;先天性心脏病在孕前3个月与PM_(10)正相关。结论西安市出生缺陷、空气污染存在趋势变化及季节规律,妊娠妇女在孕前3个月和孕早期3个月暴露于NO_2与先天性心脏病的发生正相关。
Objective To analyze the birth defects, the trend of air pollution and the seasonal pattern in Xi’an, and to explore the correlation between air pollution exposure and the outcome of birth defects. Methods The time series multiplication model was used to decompose the time series of the number of birth defects and air pollutant concentrations and to describe the long-term trends and seasonal changes of the two. Based on the ecological research approach, rank correlation and cross-correlation of birth defects and air pollutants relationship. Results The results of air pollution analysis in Xi’an from 2010 to 2015 showed that the overall trend of NO 2 increased in 2013 and then fluctuated at a high level; SO 2 overall showed a slowly decreasing trend, but there were two peaks in 2012 and 2013; PM 10, The overall trend showed two small peaks in 2013 and 2014, the rest of the year showed a relatively steady change. The overall trend of PM 2.5 (2.5) showed a gradual decline but a slight increase after 2015. The analysis of birth defects in Xi’an from 2010 to 2015 showed that the long-term trend of total birth defects and congenital heart disease increased from 2010 to 2014 and then decreased rapidly. The long-term trend of cleft lip and palate and neural tube defects was in the low range fluctuation. Correlation analysis of air pollutants and birth defects showed that the total birth defects, congenital heart disease in the first 3 months of pregnancy and 3 months of early pregnancy and NO 2 positive correlation; congenital heart disease 3 months before pregnancy and PM 10 ) Is positive. Conclusions The birth defects and the trend of air pollution in Xi’an City are different and the seasonal pattern is different. There is a positive correlation between the exposure of NO 2 to congenital heart disease in pregnant women at 3 months and 3 months of pregnancy.