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考古学研究中时间的不确定性是一个普遍的问题,而概率是表达考古学时间不确定性的一种有效方式。利用概率表达的时间可以借助统计学的方法定量处理,蒙特卡洛随机模拟则是其中一种有效的手段。本文以区域系统调查陶片的断代和碳十四测年样品的等时段分布为例介绍了简单的蒙特卡洛方法的应用及其在解决考古学时间不确定性方面的优势。
The uncertainty of time in archeological research is a common problem, and probability is an effective way to express the uncertainty of archeological time. The time of using probability expression can be quantitatively processed by means of statistics. Monte Carlo stochastic simulation is one of the effective methods. In this paper, the application of simple Monte Carlo method and its advantages in solving the uncertainty of archeology time are introduced by taking the regional system investigation of the dating of pottery and the equal-time distribution of carbon 14 dating samples as an example.