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温控负荷是参与电网功率平衡的一类有效资源,在电网紧急事故下有助于快速维持系统的频率稳定.但由于其分散分布特性造成调度中心难以直接获得其聚合功率及响应潜力.为引导温控负荷参与电网调控运行,建立了温控负荷的近似聚合模型,能够较为方便地确定其聚合功率的估计值及上下限范围.基于该模型,提出了一种计及响应不确定性的温控负荷聚合响应潜力评估方法,对温控负荷的聚合响应潜力及其分布特性进行了评估.通过仿真,验证了近似聚合模型和潜力评估方法的有效性.“,”Residential thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs) are effective resources to participate in power balancing,which are also helpful for quickly maintaining the stability of system frequency.However,their distributive characteristics would make it difficult for dispatch centers to directly get the aggregated power and response potential.In order to get TCLs to participate in the power grid operation,this paper established a simplified aggregated model of TCLs,which can easily confirm the estimated power,and the upper and lower limits.Based on this model,a demand response potential assessment method was also proposed in this paper,which took into account the response uncertainty of TCLs,and the aggregated response potential and distributive characteristics of TCLs are assessed by this method.The effectiveness of the simplified aggregated model and DR potential assessment method were proven by simulations.