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白洋淀是华北平原最大的淡水湖泊。近年来,入淀水量和降水量持续减少导致淀水位持续下降。尽管国家实施了多次的生态补水调度,但由于缺乏长效补水机制,白洋淀生态环境恶化趋势仍没有得到有效控制。南水北调中线一期工程的建设,使利用丹江口水库向白洋淀补充生态环境用水成为可能。本文通过研究丹江口水库不同运行调度方案,探讨了利用水文和气象预测、预报信息来指导水库生态调度的可行性。在分析生态预报调度方式内涵的基础上,结合丹江口水库相机补充白洋淀生态用水实例来说明该方法的实用性和可行性。研究表明,基于预报信息的生态优化调度方案,可使白洋淀多年平均补水量增加48%以上。
Baiyangdian is the largest freshwater lake in the North China Plain. In recent years, the amount of sediment and precipitation continued to decline lead to a continuous decline in water level. Although the state has implemented many times of ecological recharge regulation, the deterioration of ecological environment in Baiyangdi Lake has not been effectively controlled due to the lack of long-term recharge mechanism. The construction of the first phase of the South-to-North Water Diversion Middle Route has made it possible to supplement the ecological environment with Baiyangdian using the Danjiangkou Reservoir. This paper studies the different operation scheduling schemes of Danjiangkou reservoir and discusses the feasibility of using hydrological and meteorological forecast and forecast information to guide the ecological scheduling of reservoirs. Based on the analysis of the connotation of the ecological forecasting scheduling method, the practicality and feasibility of this method are illustrated with the help of Danjiangkou reservoir camera to supplement the ecological water use of Baiyangdian Lake. The research shows that the eco-optimal scheduling scheme based on the forecast information can increase the average recharge of Baiyangdian over 48% for many years.