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本文对2004年上半年国际国内经济金融形势进行了较为全面和深入的分析。从全球经济走势来看,世界经济已进入新一轮的稳固增长期,美日欧等主要经济体以及亚洲国家和地区的经济复苏普遍有力,国际金融市场在经济复苏的有利影响下也呈总体向好态势,国际经济金融走势对我国经济的影响日益深化。从国内经济形势来看,当前宏观调控已经取得明显成效,但经济仍在高位运行,粗放的经济增长方式没有发生根本改变,消费增长缓慢制约了经济的健康发展,商业银行中长期贷款的增长速度偏快。本文还在国内经济形势分析的基础上对下半年的财政与货币政策走向进行了预测。
This article made a more comprehensive and in-depth analysis of the international and domestic economic and financial situations in the first half of 2004. Judging from the trend of global economy, the world economy has entered a new round of steady growth. The economic recovery in the major economies such as the United States, Japan and Europe, as well as in the Asian countries and regions is generally strong. The international financial markets are also generally favorable under the favorable economic recovery. In a positive manner, the impact of the international economic and financial trends on China’s economy is deepening. Judging from the domestic economic situation, the current macroeconomic regulation and control have achieved remarkable results. However, the economy is still running at a high level. The extensive mode of economic growth has not fundamentally changed. The slow growth of consumption has constrained the healthy economic development. The growth rate of medium and long-term loans of commercial banks Fast. Based on the analysis of the domestic economic situation, this article also predicted the trend of the fiscal and monetary policies in the second half of the year.