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根据纸坊沟小流域1955—2002年降水、径流观测资料,采用时间序列分析法和统计回归分析法对降雨及径流的响应情况进行了分析,结果表明:降水量在年内分配不均,凸显单一峰值;降水在年际上呈平水年—干旱年—平水年(较丰水年)周期性变化;流域月径流变化基本与月降水量变化趋势相吻合,在同一周期中径流量峰值推后于降水量峰值一个时段,流域径流年变化幅度很大;径流深在季节分配上也有很大差异,主要集中在夏、秋季,占年总值的86.2%,而春、冬季仅占13.8%;径流距平值变化无论是季节上还是月度上均呈下降趋势;当年降水量增加或减小10%,20%,30%时,年径流深表现出分别增加或减少23.29%,46.59%,69.88%的正响应;随着时间的推移和流域治理程度的提高,流域径流量和径流深相应减小,径流深总体呈下降趋势。
According to the data of precipitation and runoff from 1955 to 2002 in Zhifanggou watershed, the response to rainfall and runoff was analyzed by using time series analysis and statistical regression analysis. The results showed that the distribution of precipitation was uneven during the year, Peak value. The precipitation changed cyclically from year to year - dry year - flat water year (relatively wet year). The change of monthly runoff basically coincided with the trend of monthly precipitation. In the same period, the peak runoff peaked behind The runoff depth varies a lot during the period of peak precipitation. The runoff depth varies greatly in the season, mainly in summer and autumn, accounting for 86.2% of the annual value, compared with 13.8% in spring and winter. The runoff When the precipitation increased or decreased by 10%, 20% and 30% respectively, the annual runoff showed an increase or decrease of 23.29%, 46.59% and 69.88% respectively, . With the increase of time and the degree of river basin management, the runoff and runoff depth of the river basin decreased correspondingly, and the runoff depth generally showed a downward trend.