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根据OECD国家1980~2012年面板数据,构建了跨国回归模型,对社会保障水平与经济发展阶段之间的相互关系进行了实证分析。社会保障水平与经济发展阶段存在同步协调性,社会保障水平与人均GDP呈现倒U曲线变动规律。社会保障水平与失业率、公民政治参与程度、人口老龄化正相关,与政府税收收入占GDP比例负相关。基于跨国回归模型,测定了2000~2050年中国社会保障水平模拟值和适度水平。社会保障现实水平显著低于模拟值和适度水平下限,表明现阶段社会保障水平与经济发展协调性较差。为此,提出中国社会保障水平应与人均国民收入同步增长、提高真实就业率、加快完善收入分配及社会保障制度等政策建议。
According to the panel data of OECD countries from 1980 to 2012, a cross-country regression model was constructed, and the correlation between social security level and economic development stage was analyzed empirically. There is simultaneous coordination between the level of social security and the stage of economic development, and the law of inverted U-curve changes in the level of social security and GDP per capita. The level of social security is positively related to the unemployment rate, the degree of civic political participation, and the aging of the population, and is negatively correlated with the government tax revenue as a percentage of GDP. Based on the cross-country regression model, the simulated value and appropriate level of social security in China from 2000 to 2050 were measured. The actual level of social security is significantly lower than the simulated value and the minimum level of moderate level, indicating that the current level of social security and economic development coordination is poor. For this reason, it puts forward some policy suggestions that the level of China’s social security should be increased simultaneously with the per capita national income, the real employment rate should be improved, and the income distribution and social security system should be perfected.