Effect of El Ni?o Southern Oscillations on the incidence of enteric fever in Ahmedabad, India from 1

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Objective: To explore the relationship between climate variables and enteric fever in the city of Ahmedabad and report preliminary findings regarding the influence of El Ni?o South Oscillations and Indian Ocean Dipole over enteric fever incidence. Method: A total of 29808 Widal positive enteric fever cases reported by the Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation and local climate data in 1985-2017 from Ahmedabad Meteorology Department were analysed. El Ni?o, La Ni?a, neutral and Indian Ocean Dipole years as reported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for the same period were compared for the incidence of enteric fever. Results: Population-normalized average monthly enteric fever case rates were the highest for El Ni?o years (25.5), lower for La Ni?a years (20.5) and lowest for neutral years (17.6). A repeated measures ANOVA analysis showed no significant difference in case rates during the three yearly El Ni?o South Oscillations categories. However, visual profile plot of estimated marginal monthly means showed two distinct characteristics: an early rise and peaking of cases in the El Ni?o and La Ni?a years, and a much more restrained rise without conspicuous peaks in neutral years. Further analysis based on monthly El Ni?o South Oscillations categories was conducted to detect differences in median monthly case rates. Median case rates in strong and moderate El Ni?o months and strong La Ni?a months were significantly dissimilar from that during neutral months (P<0.001). Conclusions: El Ni?o South Oscillations events influence the incidence of enteric fever cases in Ahmedabad, and further investigation from more cities and towns is required.
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