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发电容量投资不足或过剩都将带来巨大经济与社会损失。论文针对不确定需求下的电力市场,在分析了容量约束下的寡头发电商竞价策略基础上,运用实物期权和博弈论思想,构建了寡头发电投资阈值与容量选择模型,并通过数值仿真给出了投资商的投资阈值与最优投资容量,分析结果表明:1)随投资商数量的增加,投资阈值下降,但最优的投资容量也随之下降;若需求不确定性增大,投资阈值与最优容量则随之增大;2)就整个电力市场而言,在发电商数量比较少时,电力市场效率较低,但电力供给充裕;而在发电商数量较多时,市场效率较高,但电力供给却较为紧张。
Inadequate or excessive investment in power generation capacity will bring enormous economic and social losses. Based on the analysis of the auction strategy of non-determined e-commerce under the constraint of capacity, the dissertation uses the real options and game theory to construct the threshold model and capacity selection model for wireless investment. It is given by numerical simulation. The investor’s investment threshold and optimal investment capacity, the analysis results show that: 1) As the number of investors increases, the investment threshold decreases, but the optimal investment capacity also decreases; if the demand uncertainty increases, the investment threshold The optimal capacity will increase with it; 2) In terms of the entire power market, when the number of generators is relatively small, the power market is less efficient, but the power supply is sufficient, and when the number of generators is large, the market efficiency is high. However, the supply of electricity is more intense.