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回顾了青藏高原(下称高原)积雪变化及其对中国水资源系统影响研究进展,探讨了开展高原积雪异常对中国水资源系统影响研究存在的不足和未来趋势。高原积雪分布极不均匀,呈四周山区多、腹地少,两侧多、中间少的空间分布特征。高原东部积雪变化最显著且主导了整个高原积雪的年际变化,因此该地区积雪异常更值得关注。自20世纪60年代以来高原积雪总体呈缓慢增加趋势,21世纪初期春季和冬季积雪略有减少。目前,关于高原积雪变化对我国水资源系统影响的研究主要集中在高原积雪异常对降水和旱涝影响及其预测指示性研究两方面。高原积雪主要通过季风影响我国的降水时空分布,进而影响水资源系统。高原积雪异常对我国降水影响大,且范围广,可作为降水预测的一个重要信号,同时其对我国旱涝分布具有重要影响,并且对旱涝预测具有指示意义。
This paper reviews the research progress of the snow cover on the Tibetan Plateau and its impact on the water resources system in China and discusses the shortcomings and future trends in the research on the impact of snow anomalies on the water resources system in China. The distribution of snow in the plateau is extremely uneven, which is characterized by more mountainous areas, less hinterlands, more sides and less in the middle. The change of snow cover in the eastern plateau is the most significant and dominated the interannual change of snow cover in the whole plateau. Therefore, the anomalous snow cover in the area deserves more attention. Since the 1960s, the snow cover in the plateau has been increasing slowly, and the snow cover in spring and winter in the early 21st century decreased slightly. At present, the researches on the influence of snow cover on the water resources system in China mainly focus on two aspects: the influence of snow cover anomalies on precipitation and drought / flood in the plateau and their indicative predictions. The snow cover in the plateau affects the distribution of precipitation in China mainly through the monsoon, which affects the water resources system. The anomalous snow cover in the plateau has a great influence on precipitation in China and has a wide range. It can be used as an important signal for precipitation forecasting. Meanwhile, it has an important influence on the distribution of drought and flood in our country, and is indicative of drought and flood forecasting.