Regional seismic-damage prediction of buildings under mainshock-aftershock sequence

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Strong aftershocks generally occur following a significant earthquake.Aftershocks further damage buildings weakened by mainshocks.Thus,the accurate and efficient prediction of aftershock-induced damage to buildings on a regional scale is crucial for decision making for post-earthquake rescue and emergency response.A framework to predict regional seismic damage of buildings under a mainshock-aftershock (MS-AS) sequence is proposed in this study based on city-scale nonlinear time-history analysis (THA).Specifically,an MS-AS sequence-generation method is proposed to generate a potential MS-AS sequence that can account for the amplification,spectrum,duration,magnitude,and site condition of a target area.Moreover,city-scale nonlinear THA is adopted to predict building seismic damage subjected to MS-AS sequences.The accuracy and reliability of city-scale nonlinear THA for an MS-AS sequence are validated by as-recorded seismic responses of buildings and simulation results in published literature.The town of Longtoushan,which was damaged during the Ludian earthquake,is used as a case study to illustrate the detailed procedure and advantages of the proposed framework.The primary conclusions are as follows.(1)Regional seismic damage of buildings under an MS-AS sequence can be predicted reasonably and accurately by city-scale nonlinear THA.(2) An MS-AS sequence can be generated reasonably by the proposed MS-AS sequencegeneration method.(3) Regional seismic damage of buildings under different MS-AS scenarios can be provided efficiently by the proposed framework,which in turn can provide a useful reference for earthquake emergency response and scientific decision making for earthquake disaster relief.
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