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2008年中国宏观经济走势和股市前景,是投资者最为关注的话题。在从紧的货币政策下,股市走势会不会发生实质性逆转?财政政策依然稳健,但又是减税,又是增加开支,是否意味着财政政策会呈现宽松局面?中国经济已处高位是不争的事实,问题是何时、以何种方式回落,这种回落会否出现在不久后的某个时点?面对愈演愈烈的成本推动型通胀,以控制需求为重点的货币政策还有没有“灵丹妙药”?升值预期依旧,资产泡沫难消。货币政策从紧,但利率却不能太高。除了紧缩的货币政策,汇率政策会否扮演更重要的调控角色?如果世界经济和美国经济由于次贷危机、国际能源和大宗商品价格的上涨而出现增速放缓,中国经济的增长速度会不会受到重大影响?在这里,我们特邀12位国内知名专家学者,把脉2008年宏观经济和股市走向。
China’s macroeconomic trends and stock market outlook in 2008 are the topics of most concern to investors. In a tight monetary policy, the stock market trend will not materially reversed? Fiscal policy remains sound, but also tax cuts, but also increase spending, does that mean that fiscal policy will show a relaxed situation? China’s economy has been high Uncontested facts, when and how the problem will fall back, will such a fall occur sometime soon? Are there still any monetary policies that focus on controlling demand due to escalating cost-push inflation? “Miraculous medicine ” appreciation expectations remain the same, the asset bubble hardly disappear. Tight monetary policy, but interest rates can not be too high. Will the exchange rate policy play a more important regulatory role than the tight monetary policy? If the world economy and the U.S. economy slow down due to the subprime mortgage crisis and the rise of international energy and commodity prices, will China’s economic growth rate be lower? Will be greatly affected? Here, we invited 12 well-known domestic experts and scholars, the pulse of 2008 macroeconomic and stock market trends.