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本文考察了中国清洁发展机制一级市场上核证减排量(pCER)的定价机制,运用VECM模型分析了碳排放配额(EUA)与二级市场上核证减排量(sCER)的关系,运用NWOLS多元回归模型分析了影响sCER价格的因素。研究结果表明,pCER的价格由发达国家的投资者主导,买卖双方的风险与收益不匹配;二级市场上sCER的价格与EUA呈现出联动效应,并受到能源价格、经济波动、市场结构变化、政策调整等因素的影响。商业银行作为碳融资的主要渠道,在向低碳项目直接贷款时应分析项目的发展潜力,加大以碳交易为核心的金融衍生产品的创新力度。
This paper examines the pricing mechanism of pCER on the primary CDM market in China and analyzes the relationship between the carbon emission allowance (EUA) and the CERs on the secondary market using the VECM model. Using NWOLS multivariate regression model to analyze the factors that affect sCER price. The results show that the price of pCER is dominated by the investors in developed countries, and the risk and return of buyers and sellers do not match. The price of sCER in the secondary market shows a synergistic effect with that of EUA, and is affected by the changes of energy prices, economic fluctuations, Policy adjustment and other factors. As the main channel for carbon finance, commercial banks should analyze the potential of the project when lending to low-carbon projects and increase the innovation of financial derivatives with carbon trading as the core.