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从系统科学的视角出发,分析气候变化下水资源适应性系统脆弱性的内涵,基于脆弱性PSR分析框架,从胁迫性、敏感性、适应性3个维度构建了脆弱性评价指标体系,并采用熵值法和集对分析相结合的方法对脆弱性进行评价。结合2001～2010年鄱阳湖流域数据进行了实证研究,结果表明:10a间鄱阳湖流域水资源适应性系统脆弱性的变化受胁迫性、敏感性和适应性的综合影响,脆弱性先明显增加后缓慢下降,但基本处于中等偏差水平。鄱阳湖流域水资源适应性系统脆弱性主要由降水量变化、自然灾害和经济发展产生的能源消耗、污染问题引发,提高系统适应性对缓解脆弱性有明显作用。根据评价分析,建议鄱阳湖流域未来从提高管理能力、经济及社会响应能力和加强环境生态治理等方面采取适应性对策;通过改善鄱阳湖流域发展方式和生态环境,减少脆弱性和提高可持续发展能力,更好地发挥鄱阳湖流域对国家生态安全的保障作用。
From the perspective of system science, this paper analyzes the connotation of vulnerability of adaptive system of water resources under climate change. Based on vulnerability PSR analysis framework, the vulnerability assessment index system is constructed from the three dimensions of coercion, sensitivity and adaptability, Value method and set pair analysis to evaluate the vulnerability. Based on the data of Poyang Lake Basin from 2001 to 2010, the results show that the vulnerability of the adaptable water resources in Poyang Lake Basin during the past 10 years is affected by the combination of coercion, sensitivity and adaptability, and the vulnerability firstly increases Slow decline, but at a moderate level of deviation. The system vulnerability of Poyang Lake Basin water adaptability is mainly caused by precipitation changes, natural disasters and energy consumption caused by economic development and pollution problems. Improving system adaptability has a significant role in alleviating the vulnerability. According to the evaluation and analysis, it is suggested that Poyang Lake Basin should take adaptive measures in the future in terms of improving management ability, economic and social responsiveness and strengthening environmental and ecological management. By improving the Poyang Lake Basin development mode and ecological environment, reducing vulnerability and improving sustainable development Ability to better play a Poyang Lake Basin on the protection of national ecological security role.