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本文对山西地堑带6—8(Ms)地震时空分布,迁移特征作了进一步研究,并据研究结果对地震发展趋势作了分析,认为1815年平陆6 3/4级或1898年代县6 3/4级地震均非≥7级地震之前的强信号震,今后此带应先发生6(Ms)地震,然后才有发生≥7级地震的可能性。今后第一个6级地震应由代县63/4级地震向南迁,并迁至北东或北北东向某一地堑中发生,北迁的可能性很小。据此带≥7级地震向南呈多个顺序南迁、先后地震时间差依次递减及单个北跳的迁移特征分析,此带≥7级地震第二次南迁序列已结束,下一个≥7级地震不会由1695年临汾8级地震继续南迁,而应北跳至此带北部某一地堑中发生。
In this paper, the spatial-temporal distribution and migration characteristics of the 6-8 (Ms) earthquake in Shanxi graben zone have been further studied. According to the research results, the trend of earthquake development has been analyzed. It is concluded that in Pinglou 6 3/4 or 1898 All of the earthquakes of magnitude 3/4 are not strong earthquakes that preceded the earthquakes of magnitude ≥7, so that a 6 (Ms) earthquake should precede this zone, and then a ≥7 magnitude earthquake may occur. The first MS6 earthquakes in the future should be moved southward by the 63/4 earthquakes in Daixian County and moved to a certain northeastern or northeastern graben, with little possibility of moving northward. According to this, there is a series of southward migration of ≥7 earthquakes to the south, followed by successive decrease of seismic time difference and migration characteristics of single northward jump. The sequence of the second southward migration of ≥7 earthquakes has ended, and the next ≥7 The earthquake will not continue to move southward by the Linfen M8.8 earthquake in 1695, but should jump northward to occur here in a certain graben in the north.