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本文应用多元分类分析和通路分析法研究了江苏省不同地区平均活产数的影响因素。结果表明,30年来平均活产数均是苏南低于苏北,但两地差距逐年缩小。苏南地区初婚年龄推迟1岁平均减少0.27个活产,而苏北地区可减少0.40个活产。文化水平对于平均活产数的作用也是苏北地区明显,但随着经济的发展,苏南苏北均有初婚年龄提早及平均活产数增加的现象,苏北地区更明显。
In this paper, multivariate analysis and path analysis were used to study the influencing factors of average live births in different areas of Jiangsu Province. The results showed that the average live births in 30 years were lower in southern Jiangsu than in northern Jiangsu, but the gap between the two shrunk year by year. The average age of first marriage in southern Jiangsu was reduced by 0.27 live births on average at the age of 1, while the live births in northern Jiangsu could be reduced by 0.40. The effect of educational level on the average live births was also obvious in Northern Jiangsu Province. However, with the economic development, the early marriage age and the average live births increased in Northern Jiangsu and Northern Jiangsu.