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目的探讨ARIMA季节乘积模型在济南市猩红热月发病率预测中的应用,并预测猩红热月发病趋势,为制订防控策略提供依据。方法对济南市2006 2014年猩红热月发病率资料建立ARIMA季节乘积模型,利用2015年1 6月发病资料检验模型的精度,并预测2015年各月发病率。结果构建ARIMA(1,0,0)×(0,1,1)12模型可以用于济南市猩红热月发病率的拟合和预测,模型决定系数R2=0.64。结论 2015年济南市猩红热处于高流行期,应警惕出现流行和暴发的可能,在高发时间、高发地点做好猩红热的监测和应对工作,防止暴发流行。
Objective To investigate the application of ARIMA seasonal product model in forecasting the incidence of scarlet fever in Jinan and to predict the incidence of scarlet fever in the month and provide evidence for the development of prevention and control strategies. Methods The ARIMA seasonal product model was established for monthly incidence of scarlet fever in Jinan City from 2006 to 2014, the accuracy of the model was tested by incidence data from January to June 2015, and the incidence of each month in 2015 was predicted. Results The ARIMA (1,0,0) × (0,1,1) 12 model could be used to fit and forecast the incidence of scarlet fever in Ji’nan City. The model determination coefficient R2 = 0.64. Conclusion In 2015, scarlet fever in Jinan City was in a high-prevalence period. The possibility of epidemics and outbreaks should be vigilant. Scarlet fever should be monitored and dealt with in high incidence areas and high incidence areas to prevent outbreaks.