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本文采用新近发展的异质性面板协整估计方法,利用130个国家1970-2010年最广泛的跨国数据,研究了出口多样性与经济增长的长期关系,较好地克服了传统研究方法的诸多计量缺陷,从而为这一研究话题提供了最新的可靠证据。结果表明,出口多样性从长远看将抑制而非促进一国经济增长,这一结论对于发达国家和发展中国家并未有差异性。但与投资的经济增长促进作用相比,出口结构的角色相对微弱。因此,一国政府在考虑出口多样性作为政策目标时仍需谨慎。
Using the newly developed heterogeneous panel cointegration estimation method, this paper studies the long-term relationship between export diversity and economic growth by using the most extensive cross-country data from 130 countries in 1970-2010, and overcomes many of the traditional research methods Metering defects provides the latest reliable evidence for this research topic. The results show that the export diversification will restrain rather than promote the economic growth of a country in the long run. This conclusion has no difference for developed and developing countries. However, the role of export structure is relatively weak in comparison with the role of investment in promoting economic growth. Therefore, a country’s government still needs to be cautious in considering export diversity as its policy objective.