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在电力市场环境下,由于径流和日前市场电价的随机性对水电站收益有显著影响,水电站愈加关注考虑其收益随机性的中长期合约电量优化策略问题,因此提出一种基于随机线性规划的水电站中长期合约电量决策模型。该模型以基于不同场景构建方法得到的场景树模型表示径流和电价的随机性,将远期合约决策与日前市场交易决策视为随机规划框架下的不同阶段决策。通过与预测值模型的比较分析,随机线性规划模型由于充分考虑了随机性的影响而保证了其收益的优越性。此外,通过与不同决策模式下的随机规划模型进行比较分析,2种模型对水电站远期合约决策及收益影响的相似性进一步验证了随机线性规划模型的有效性,为随机线性规划在水电站中长期合约电量优化决策问题中的应用提供参考。
In the electricity market environment, because of the random effects of runoff and the market price of electricity, the hydropower station has a significant impact on the revenue of the hydropower station. The hydropower station is paying more attention to the mid-long term contractual power optimization strategy considering its randomness of return. Therefore, a hydropower station based on stochastic linear programming Long Term Contract Power Decision Model. This model shows the randomness of runoff and electricity prices based on the scenario tree model based on different scenario building methods. The forward contract decision and the day-ahead market transaction decision are regarded as different stage decisions under the stochastic programming framework. By comparing with the forecasting model, the stochastic linear programming model can ensure the superiority of the stochastic linear programming model because of the randomness. In addition, by comparing with the stochastic programming models under different decision-making models, the similarity between the two models on the impact of long-term contract decisions and returns of hydropower stations further verifies the validity of the stochastic linear programming model, Contract power optimization decision-making problems in the application of reference.