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The new round of oversized production has not only become the “invisible bomb”for the economic development， but also the new base for the internationally thinking lowly of China’s economic outlook.
According to the news released by the National Development and Reform Commission （NDRC） on August 1， the reduction of the excess production capacity is progressing in a clear order as revealed by the development situation of the first half of 2014. “Initial effect has been seen in this project，” the report said.
From the viewpoint of capital market， the situation turns out to be better in the industries of construction materials and so on with the improved economic situation and increasing investment. However， several analysis institutions’ reports called the positive change the rare incidence in a few industries and could not stand for the general betterment of every economic sector.
Experts from different sectors think that this round of excess production capacity involves many industries， has a long duration， applies great influence and is hard to be resolved. Therefore， it is still a tough task to reduce the oversized production. In the long-term battle against the excess production capacity， the design and improvement of maneuvers and policies still play the major roles.
Long Way to Solve Excess Production Capacity
At the end of last year， the Economic Working Conference of China’s central government established the reduction of oversized production as one of the six major economic tasks this year.
The news from NDRC says that the steel， electrolytic aluminum and other industries that used to be haunted by oversized production saw the rebound of profits in the first half of 2014. The Chinese government’s efforts in reducing the production capacity have been rewarded with the initial achievements.
According to NDRC’s data， the investment into steel and electrolytic aluminum respectively dropped 8.4% and 31% year on year. The key steel enterprises began to see the profits again this march and they earned the profits of 1.75 billion yuan in the first five months of 2014. In May， the profits amounted to 2.85 billion yuan， 1.3 times as high as the previous month. The increase in the profits of steel industry was attributed to the drastic decrease of prices of iron ores and coals.
In addition， the cement industry saw the profits of 17.2 billion yuan in the first four months of 2014， up 109.3% compared with the same period of last year. The panel glass industry earned the profits of 1.8 billion yuan， up 78% year on year. The shipyards were also turning better as they received the orders of ships with the total weigh of 40.8 million tons in the first half of 2014， 78.2% more than the same period of last year. From January to May， these shipyards saw the profits of 2.53 billion yuan， up 9.2% year on year. The market analysts say that the investment into industries with oversized production has been apparently slowed down， but it is still a hard task to consume the inventory. With the increasing investment into infrastructure and the betterment of economy， some of the oversized production is put into use， but this does little to the fact that the general excess production capacity still haunts the Chinese economy. It is widely believed that the better situation is exclusive to some industries and the overall solution is on its way to come out.
Zhao Changwen， director of the Industrial and Economic Office at State Council’s Development Research Center， says that none economic bodies could benefit from the reduction of oversized production in a short term. The oversized production is actually the bubble resulted from the real economy. Erasing these bubbles means to cut down a portion of the social wealth and national income. Therefore， the risk in that process is inevitable.
“In spite of this， we still need to hold onto the path of reducing the oversized production. That’s because this is going to be a benefiting task in the long term. Only in that way we can prevent and defuse the systematic risks in the economic development，” says Zhao Changwen.
On July 31， the Ministry of Industry and Information Technologies issued the Notice about Swapping the Production of Some Industries with Seriously Excessive Production Capacity， requiring the local governments to prevent the industrials sectors with excess production capacity from increasing their production again. They are also required to do well in the swapping of steel， electrolytic aluminum， cement and panel glass.
Barriers from Local Governments
The investment impulse of local governments and their desire for the political performance are usually thought to be the main engines of the oversized production. For this， the central government issued an order to list the reduction of oversized production into the indexes to review local governments’ political while lowering the influence of GDP.
The governmental official of the NDRC said recently that local governments at different levels have basically halted the new projects of the industries with extremely excess production capacity according to the investigation results at the end of last year. They are also cleaning off the projects that were beyond the line. Various supporting facilities and reconstruction projects are progressing very steadily. A scholar working for the government says that he just finished a research report about reducing the oversized production in June. After half a year’s onthe-spot research and investigation， he got the result that the excess production capacity is not so serious as expected， but the situation could not be said to be optimistic.
“The problem is that there are big differences between sectors or regions，”says the scholar. The policies that vary to regions and sectors are the key to putting an end to this problem.
Such a way of thinking has been incarnated in the new policy of the Chinese government. According to the Notice about Swapping the Production of Some Industries with Seriously Excessive Production Capacity， the projects of the industries with seriously excess production capacity must have the plan of swapping the protection capacity to realize the zero increase in the production capacity within the industrial sectors. In the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area， Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta with sensitive environmental problems， the new projects are required to assist in reducing the production capacity by adopting new technologies and methods.
In May， a governmental official from a western province said that the biggest problem brought by the reduction of production capacity lied with the lack of substitute industries and the reemployment of the unemployed. Since it is hard for local governments to find better economic growth points and solve the problems caused by the unemployed people in the reduction of production capacity， they are not very elevated when it comes to the reduction of oversized production.
Complete Quitting System as the Key
In the process of reducing the production capacity， the policy for the quitting of enterprises is what entrepreneurs complain about most.
Though there are differences between the quitting of enterprises and the one of industrial sectors， the two parts are closely related to each other. If the enterprise is forced to quit after its closure， the production capacity it represents is gone as well. If the enterprise is transferred， restructured or merged， its production capacity will not be reduced– at least in the short term.
In Zhao Wenchang’s opinion， there are no complete policies of China to tackle the excess production capacity. Various kinds of policies in the past emphasized on size and strength of enterprises too much. They usually lent support to the enterprises that were in trouble and rarely helped them quit the industry. “Quitting” is the independent choice of enterprises， according to Zhao Wenchang. The duty of the government is to create a perfect market to lower the cost of the enterprise’s quitting for the convenience of their quitting and access.
“In this process， the government’s role is none other than reducing the burden of the enterprises，” Zhao Wenchang says. “It is necessary for the Chinese government to fix the HR policies respectively targeting the quitting of stateowned enterprises and non-state-owned enterprises. The policies for state-owned enterprises， for example， should focus on the placement of fired/retired employees to avoid the ‘one-time massive layoff without enough social insurance’ in the past.”
For the non-state-owned enterprises， the government must make sure that there is no default for the wages and social securities for the employees after the closure/merger/transfer of the enterprises. For those employees hard to find new jobs due to age or other problems， measures should be taken to guarantee their basic living conditions. The source of the capital is the specially-founded fund for the quitting of enterprises. In addition， Zhao Wenchang suggests that the social security level should be improved to facilitate the cross-region and cross-sector labor force transfer for a smooth and matured labor force development.
According to the news released by the National Development and Reform Commission （NDRC） on August 1， the reduction of the excess production capacity is progressing in a clear order as revealed by the development situation of the first half of 2014. “Initial effect has been seen in this project，” the report said.
From the viewpoint of capital market， the situation turns out to be better in the industries of construction materials and so on with the improved economic situation and increasing investment. However， several analysis institutions’ reports called the positive change the rare incidence in a few industries and could not stand for the general betterment of every economic sector.
Experts from different sectors think that this round of excess production capacity involves many industries， has a long duration， applies great influence and is hard to be resolved. Therefore， it is still a tough task to reduce the oversized production. In the long-term battle against the excess production capacity， the design and improvement of maneuvers and policies still play the major roles.
Long Way to Solve Excess Production Capacity
At the end of last year， the Economic Working Conference of China’s central government established the reduction of oversized production as one of the six major economic tasks this year.
The news from NDRC says that the steel， electrolytic aluminum and other industries that used to be haunted by oversized production saw the rebound of profits in the first half of 2014. The Chinese government’s efforts in reducing the production capacity have been rewarded with the initial achievements.
According to NDRC’s data， the investment into steel and electrolytic aluminum respectively dropped 8.4% and 31% year on year. The key steel enterprises began to see the profits again this march and they earned the profits of 1.75 billion yuan in the first five months of 2014. In May， the profits amounted to 2.85 billion yuan， 1.3 times as high as the previous month. The increase in the profits of steel industry was attributed to the drastic decrease of prices of iron ores and coals.
In addition， the cement industry saw the profits of 17.2 billion yuan in the first four months of 2014， up 109.3% compared with the same period of last year. The panel glass industry earned the profits of 1.8 billion yuan， up 78% year on year. The shipyards were also turning better as they received the orders of ships with the total weigh of 40.8 million tons in the first half of 2014， 78.2% more than the same period of last year. From January to May， these shipyards saw the profits of 2.53 billion yuan， up 9.2% year on year. The market analysts say that the investment into industries with oversized production has been apparently slowed down， but it is still a hard task to consume the inventory. With the increasing investment into infrastructure and the betterment of economy， some of the oversized production is put into use， but this does little to the fact that the general excess production capacity still haunts the Chinese economy. It is widely believed that the better situation is exclusive to some industries and the overall solution is on its way to come out.
Zhao Changwen， director of the Industrial and Economic Office at State Council’s Development Research Center， says that none economic bodies could benefit from the reduction of oversized production in a short term. The oversized production is actually the bubble resulted from the real economy. Erasing these bubbles means to cut down a portion of the social wealth and national income. Therefore， the risk in that process is inevitable.
“In spite of this， we still need to hold onto the path of reducing the oversized production. That’s because this is going to be a benefiting task in the long term. Only in that way we can prevent and defuse the systematic risks in the economic development，” says Zhao Changwen.
On July 31， the Ministry of Industry and Information Technologies issued the Notice about Swapping the Production of Some Industries with Seriously Excessive Production Capacity， requiring the local governments to prevent the industrials sectors with excess production capacity from increasing their production again. They are also required to do well in the swapping of steel， electrolytic aluminum， cement and panel glass.
Barriers from Local Governments
The investment impulse of local governments and their desire for the political performance are usually thought to be the main engines of the oversized production. For this， the central government issued an order to list the reduction of oversized production into the indexes to review local governments’ political while lowering the influence of GDP.
The governmental official of the NDRC said recently that local governments at different levels have basically halted the new projects of the industries with extremely excess production capacity according to the investigation results at the end of last year. They are also cleaning off the projects that were beyond the line. Various supporting facilities and reconstruction projects are progressing very steadily. A scholar working for the government says that he just finished a research report about reducing the oversized production in June. After half a year’s onthe-spot research and investigation， he got the result that the excess production capacity is not so serious as expected， but the situation could not be said to be optimistic.
“The problem is that there are big differences between sectors or regions，”says the scholar. The policies that vary to regions and sectors are the key to putting an end to this problem.
Such a way of thinking has been incarnated in the new policy of the Chinese government. According to the Notice about Swapping the Production of Some Industries with Seriously Excessive Production Capacity， the projects of the industries with seriously excess production capacity must have the plan of swapping the protection capacity to realize the zero increase in the production capacity within the industrial sectors. In the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area， Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta with sensitive environmental problems， the new projects are required to assist in reducing the production capacity by adopting new technologies and methods.
In May， a governmental official from a western province said that the biggest problem brought by the reduction of production capacity lied with the lack of substitute industries and the reemployment of the unemployed. Since it is hard for local governments to find better economic growth points and solve the problems caused by the unemployed people in the reduction of production capacity， they are not very elevated when it comes to the reduction of oversized production.
Complete Quitting System as the Key
In the process of reducing the production capacity， the policy for the quitting of enterprises is what entrepreneurs complain about most.
Though there are differences between the quitting of enterprises and the one of industrial sectors， the two parts are closely related to each other. If the enterprise is forced to quit after its closure， the production capacity it represents is gone as well. If the enterprise is transferred， restructured or merged， its production capacity will not be reduced– at least in the short term.
In Zhao Wenchang’s opinion， there are no complete policies of China to tackle the excess production capacity. Various kinds of policies in the past emphasized on size and strength of enterprises too much. They usually lent support to the enterprises that were in trouble and rarely helped them quit the industry. “Quitting” is the independent choice of enterprises， according to Zhao Wenchang. The duty of the government is to create a perfect market to lower the cost of the enterprise’s quitting for the convenience of their quitting and access.
“In this process， the government’s role is none other than reducing the burden of the enterprises，” Zhao Wenchang says. “It is necessary for the Chinese government to fix the HR policies respectively targeting the quitting of stateowned enterprises and non-state-owned enterprises. The policies for state-owned enterprises， for example， should focus on the placement of fired/retired employees to avoid the ‘one-time massive layoff without enough social insurance’ in the past.”
For the non-state-owned enterprises， the government must make sure that there is no default for the wages and social securities for the employees after the closure/merger/transfer of the enterprises. For those employees hard to find new jobs due to age or other problems， measures should be taken to guarantee their basic living conditions. The source of the capital is the specially-founded fund for the quitting of enterprises. In addition， Zhao Wenchang suggests that the social security level should be improved to facilitate the cross-region and cross-sector labor force transfer for a smooth and matured labor force development.