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巴特拉的预测:1990年大萧条莱维·巴特拉——这位曾准确预断两伊战争爆发时间的印裔美籍经济学家断言“1990年将出现世界经济大萧条”。巴特拉对本世纪20年代和80年代的情况列表逐年比较,发现其间“发生的事件惊人地相似”,因此,他断言,世界经济大萧条将在1989年底或1990年上半年开始,并至少延续7年。他的主要论点是:一,从历史上看,自1770年以来,每隔60年,经济出现一次大萧条,上一次萧条发生于1930年,下一次将发生于1990年。二、财富过分集中是大萧条的催化剂。1929年,美国财富的集中达到登峰造极的地步,1%的美国人持有的美国财富份额达36.3%,目前也是如此,美国36%的财富落在1%
Butra’s prediction: Levi Butra, the Great Depression of 1990, an Indian-American economist who accurately predicted the timing of the Iran-Iraq war, asserted that “there will be a world recession in 1990.” Batra’s year-by-year comparisons of the list of circumstances in the 1920s and 1980s found “surprisingly similar” events in between, and he therefore asserted that the Great Depression of the world would begin in late 1989 or the first half of 1990 and continue for at least 7 year. His main arguments are: First, historically, every 60 years since 1770, the Great Depression has emerged in the economy. The last depression occurred in 1930 and the next in 1990. Second, excessive concentration of wealth is a catalyst for the Great Depression. In 1929, the concentration of wealth in the United States reached its peak. One percent of Americans held 36.3% of the U.S. wealth. So far, 36% of the wealth in the United States landed at 1%