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合理利用水资源,并将其控制在水资源承载力范围内,是一个区域社会、经济和生态环境不断优化发展的关键。以樱桃沟小流域水资源承载力为研究对象,运用模糊综合评价方法,选取2010—2050年5个水平年对樱桃沟小流域水资源承载力进行了预测。结果表明:2010年樱桃沟小流域水资源发展水平同社会经济发展极不协调,处于很弱的水平,到2020年两者关系趋于缓和,2050年进入协调发展阶段;流域内生态环境系统一直处于很弱的级别。二级模糊评判结果反应出在5个预测水平年内,小流域整体的水资源承载力持续升高。
Rational utilization of water resources and their control within the scope of water resources carrying capacity are the keys to the continuous optimization and development of social, economic and ecological environments in the region. Taking the water resources carrying capacity of Yingtougou watershed as the research object, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used to predict the water resources carrying capacity of Yingachuogou small watershed in five levels from 2010 to 2050. The results show that the development level of water resources in Yingtuogou small watershed in 2010 is extremely uncoordinated with the social and economic development and at a very weak level. By 2020, the relationship between the two will be eased and the coordinated development will take place in 2050. The ecological environment system in the basin has been At a very weak level. The second-level fuzzy evaluation results reflect that the overall water resource carrying capacity of small watersheds continues to rise during the five forecast years.