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面向21世纪的核能发展,从快中子增殖堆、高温气冷堆及混合堆三种堆型中,中国将研究开发一种能大幅度提高核燃料利用率、安全性与经济性好的堆型。考虑到先进堆评价涉及到很多不确定和较难量化的因素,采用了层次分析法(AHP)和专家咨询法。在层次分析法的指标体系中,选取了4个主要指标:安全性、技术成熟度、经济性和适用性。在广泛征求了专家们的意见和大量调研了国内外文献基础上,选取了氧化物燃料快堆、金属燃料快堆、铀燃料高温气冷堆、铀-钍循环高温气冷堆和混合堆的评价参数,并作了综合评价和排序。同时邀请了130位在政府部门和学术研究部门工作的专家和权威,对先进堆的发展进行了咨询。咨询答卷的回收率达到86％。并对咨询数据进行了计算机处理。从上述两种方法的评价结果中可以得到如下结论:快堆,特别是金属燃料快堆应成为中国21世纪核能发展的主要堆型。
For the development of nuclear energy in the 21st century, from the three types of heaps of fast neutron breeders, high temperature gas-cooled reactors and hybrid reactors, China will study and develop a reactor that can greatly improve the utilization rate of nuclear fuel, which is safe and economical . Considering that the evaluation of advanced heap involves many factors that are uncertain and difficult to quantify, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Expert Consultation are adopted. In the indicator system of AHP, four main indicators are selected: safety, technology maturity, economy and applicability. On the basis of extensively soliciting the opinions of experts and extensively studying the domestic and foreign literatures, the author selected the oxide fuel fast reactor, the metal fuel fast reactor, the uranium fuel HTGR, the uranium-thorium HTGR and the hybrid reactor Evaluation parameters, and made a comprehensive evaluation and sorting. At the same time, 130 experts and authorities working in government departments and academic research departments were invited to consult on the development of advanced heaps. The response rate of the questionnaire reached 86%. The consultation data were computerized. Judging from the results of the above two methods, the following conclusions can be drawn: Fast reactors, especially metal fuel fast reactors, should become the major reactor for the development of nuclear energy in China in the 21st century.