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伴随着地下空间工程大量兴建,在基坑开挖阶段,定期观测周边建筑物沉降,分析预测其未来的沉降变化规律、发展趋势,对保证建筑物与人民生命财产安全具有重要意义。为科学合理预测基坑周边建筑物沉降值,在综合常用灰色预测模型,即Verhulst模型、GM(1,1)模型和SCGM(1,1)_c模型优点的基础上,建立灰色组合模型,通过挖掘各单一模型的有效信息,优化拟合结果,从而对基坑周边建筑物的沉降值进行有效预测。实例应用表明:灰色组合模型的预测值与观测数据的拟合结果优于单一预测模型,其预测精度明显提升,沉降预测值更为可靠,可为采取相应的预防或处理措施提供科学决策依据。
With the massive construction of underground space projects, it is very important to regularly observe the settlement of surrounding buildings in the excavation of foundation pit and analyze and forecast the rules and trends of settlement in the future. This is of great significance to ensuring the safety of buildings and people’s lives and properties. In order to scientifically and reasonably predict the settlement of buildings around the foundation pit, a gray combination model was established based on the advantages of the commonly used gray prediction models, namely Verhulst model, GM (1,1) model and SCGM (1,1) _c model Excavate the effective information of each single model, and optimize the fitting result, so as to effectively predict the settlement value of the buildings around the foundation pit. The application of the example shows that the fitting result between the gray prediction model and the observation data is better than the single prediction model, the prediction accuracy is obviously improved and the settlement prediction value is more reliable, which can provide the scientific decision basis for the corresponding prevention or treatment measures.