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本文首先简要回顾了山地灾害研究与防治方面的新进展:认识了山地灾害的空间分布规律,建立了山洪、泥石流、滑坡危险性评价方法;发展了滑坡稳定性分析的原理和计算方法,建立了泥石流流体应力本构关系、泥石流流速流量和冲击力计算公式、粘性泥石流起动模型,提出了山洪和泥石流规模放大效应;基于降雨和地面成灾环境要素耦合分析,发展了山地灾害气象预报方法;基于对灾害物理特性的认识,研发了一系列灾害监测预警仪器、数字流域平台与智能手机网络相结合的山洪预警系统;发展了灾害治理工程技术,形成了适合欠发达地区特点的灾害治理技术体系。在此基础上,分析了在灾害形成、运动、预测预报、防治技术和风险管理等方面还需要进一步深化研究的问题,提出山地灾害学科今后面临的任务。最后,针对国家减灾需求和学科发展目标,提出灾害对生态的响应机制、气候变化对山地灾害的影响与巨灾预测、水—土耦合的细观结构力学、灾害风险的理论与方法、基于灾害形成理论的机理预报模式、灾害防治技术规程的健全等未来应该关注的科学技术问题。
This paper briefly reviews the recent progress in the research and prevention of mountain calamities: understanding of the spatial distribution of mountain calamities, establishment of flash floods, debris flows and landslide hazard assessment methods; developing the principle and calculation method of landslide stability analysis; establishing Based on the constitutive relationship between fluid stress and debris flow, the flow rate and impact force of debris flow, and the start-up model of viscous debris flow, the scale-up effect of flash flood and debris flow was proposed. Based on the coupled analysis of environmental factors of rainfall and ground disaster, the meteorological forecast method of mountain disaster was developed. Awareness of the physical characteristics of the disaster has resulted in the development of a series of early warning systems for mountain torrents that combine disaster monitoring and early warning instruments and digital river basin platforms with a smart phone network and developed disaster management engineering technologies to form a disaster management technology system that is suitable for the underdeveloped areas. On this basis, the problems that need to be further deepened in the field of disaster formation, movement, forecasting and forecast, prevention and control technology and risk management are analyzed, and the tasks to be faced by the discipline of mountain disaster are put forward. Finally, according to the needs of national disaster reduction and its development goals, this paper puts forward the mechanism of disaster response to ecology, the impact of climate change on mountain disaster and catastrophe prediction, the meso-structure mechanics of water-soil coupling, the theory and method of disaster risk, The formation of the theory of the mechanism of forecasting model, disaster prevention and control of technical regulations and other future should pay attention to science and technology issues.