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目的通过预测广西卫生技术人员需求,以期为卫生技术人员的合理配置提供参考依据。方法运用ARIMA(1,2,1)模型预测广西2017-2024年卫生技术人员需求。结果从2017-2024年卫生技术人员数的预测值看,广西卫生技术人员数呈平稳上升趋势,将由2017年的314 693人上升到2024年的463 998人,其中执业(助理)医师数由2017年的103 126人上升到2024年的153 457人、注册护士数由2017年的137 059人上升到2024年的245 169人。结论 ARIMA模型适用于预测卫生技术人员需求量;广西应当加大卫生技术人员引进的力度,注重加大医生、护士的培养力度,探索建立人才合理流动机制。
Objective To predict the need of health technicians in Guangxi in order to provide a reference for the rational allocation of health technicians. Methods The ARIMA (1,2,1) model was used to predict the demand of health technicians in Guangxi from 2017 to 2024. Results From the forecast of the number of health technicians in 2017-2024, the number of health technicians in Guangxi shows a steady upward trend, which will rise from 314,693 in 2017 to 463,998 in 2024, with the number of practicing (assistant) physicians increased from 2017 to 2024 The number of registered nurses increased from 137,059 in 2017 to 245,160 in 2024, up from 103,126 in 2006 to 153,457 in 2024. Conclusion The ARIMA model is suitable for forecasting the demand of health technicians. Guangxi should increase the introduction of health technicians, pay more attention to the training of doctors and nurses, and explore the establishment of a reasonable flow mechanism of qualified personnel.