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半年已过,中国经济如预期在第一季度触底后反弹。中国经济正走在复苏的金光大道上。但是,中国基础货币的增长和货币乘数的反弹将使广义货币供给过度和信贷过度增长。具有刚性的固定资产投资,尤其是房地产投资和新开工项目的快速增长,以及外资流入和信贷增长的共同推动,让我们不得不担心未来的经济过热。未雨绸缪,相应的政策调整十分重要。
Six months have passed and China’s economy is expected to rebound after it bottoms out in the first quarter. China’s economy is on the recovery Cotai Strip. However, the growth of China’s monetary base and the rebound of the money multiplier will cause over-supply of broad money and over credit growth. The rigid investment in fixed assets, especially the rapid growth of real estate investment and newly started projects, as well as the joint efforts of foreign capital inflows and credit growth, make us have to worry about the future overheating of the economy. To take precautions, the corresponding policy adjustment is very important.