Framework for a Low-Carbon Future

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China has invested 1.73 trillion yuan($272.44 billion) in domestic new and renewable energy innovation over the past five years, and is the global leader in terms of investment in the sector. During the same period, the investment of the United States, the world’s second-largest investor, was equivalent to 86 percent of China’s.
The figures come from the Annual Review of Low-Carbon Development in China (2011-12) released by the Climate Policy Initiative at Tsinghua University on November 9 in Beijing. According to this review, funding from the central and local governments for the low-carbon economy has increased rapidly since 2005, indicating that low-carbon development has become an important direction for the Chinese economy.
Big investment in new and renewable energy has reversed the trend of increasing energy intensity, which refers to energy use per 10,000 yuan ($1,574.8) of the GDP. According to the annual review, in 2010 China achieved a 19.1-percent reduction in energy intensity against the 2005 energy intensity baseline. This reduction is equivalent to an energy intensity improvement of 630 million tons of coal equivalent and carbon dioxide emission reduction of 1.55 billion tons. The proportion of non-fossil energy among all primary energy resources increased by 1.8 percentage points, and forest growing stock increased 900 million cubic meters.
Figures also show that technological development has driven China’s total energy intensity improvement by 69 percent, and structural adjustment contributed 23 percent.
The annual review says during the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-15) period, China will invest more in structural adjustment for energy saving and emission reduction, and the low-carbon investment will continue to grow rapidly. It is estimated that in the next decade, China’s new energy investment will reach 5 trillion yuan ($787.4 billion).
High prices
Since 1992, China has implemented a series of measures to develop the lowcarbon economy, such as improving energy efficiency, developing clean energy, planting trees and participating in international cooperation.
Liu Yanhua, a consultant to the State Council, said China’s industrialization started one or two centuries after most countries in the West, and China is now still in the primary stage of industrialization. Historically the per-capita emission of carbon dioxide in developed countries was higher than 300 tons and in some countries, the amount even exceeded 500 tons. In China, the per-capita emission is lower than 100 tons.
Though a developing country, China said it would reduce its carbon dioxide emissions by 40-45 percent at the UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen.
“We have made efforts and sacrifice to fulfill this commitment,” Liu said.
According to Liu, China has made economic structural adjustments and eliminated outdated production modes, some of which even had been eliminated before their profit cycles ended.
Figures released by the National Development and Reform Commission(NDRC) showed that in the past five years, China eliminated 70 million kw of small-scale thermal power generating sets, higher than the total installed capacity of thermal power in the United Kingdom. A report released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences said by 2020 almost 600,000 people would lose their jobs due to the closure of small thermal power plants. Moreover, China will also close 10,000 small coalmines.
However, developing the low-carbon economy also brings many new job opportunities. According to a report released by the China Renewable Energy Industry Association, there are 6,000 solar energy enterprises nationwide, creating 200,000 job openings.
Liu said for energy saving and emission reduction, China has made large investment in technology development and marketing of renewable energy, which has brought worldwide contributions. “As a developing country, China faces tasks of both developing the economy and reducing emissions. Despite its impacts on our economic development, we have tried hard in reducing emissions,” Liu said.
Research by the Climate Policy Initiative at Tsinghua University shows that affected by the GDP-oriented concept, local governments in China have strong incentives to expand economic scales. This may adversely affect the performance of low-carbon economic development of the whole country.
Future challenges
Qi Ye, Director of the Climate Policy Initiative at Tsinghua University, said local governments face a number of challenges in low-carbon development: To reach the goal of energy saving and emission reduction. The Central Government assigns binding targets to local governments, but many local governments have not done their best in implementing the policies and even approved projects of high energy consumption. Some local governments even had to fulfill their energy saving targets by switching off power supplies at the end of the 11th Five-Year Plan (2006-10).
All local governments have set GDP growth targets higher than the 7-percent target set by the Central Government during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, and accumulated energy consumption targets set by various localities were 500 million tons of coal equivalent higher than the national target, therefore the country’s target of energy saving in the next five years is not easy to reach.
Zhang Guobao, Director of the Expert Consulting Committee of the National Energy Commission, said there are many uncertainties for China to realize the target of energy consumption in the next five years.
Qi thought the market-oriented approach to reducing carbon emissions needs to be improved. Research by Climate Policy Initiative found that diversified policies and massive government inputs are basic characteristics of China’s low-carbon development, and administrative measures and incentives have played a leading role in saving energy and reducing carbon emissions.
In the past five years, China reduced 473 million tons of carbon emissions with administrative measures and another 777 million tons with incentive measures. However, only 15 million tons of carbon dioxide were eliminated with market-oriented measures. “Market and taxation measures have not played their due roles in resource allocation; a long-effective mechanism for energy saving and emission reduction has not been set up; and in the future the government should strengthen coordination of policies and make further use of marketoriented measures,” Qi said.
According to Qi, with low-carbon development in the past five years, China is catching up with developed countries in the capability of technology innovation, and the proportion of domestically developed low-carbon technologies and equipment is remarkably increased. However, low-carbon technologies have not yet been widely used in the country and China still has not mastered some core technologies.
To solve problems that have existed for a long time, such as high energy consumption, low energy efficiency and serious environment pollution, China must thoroughly transform its economic growth pattern and stick to a lowcarbon economy that saves energy and protects the environment.
On November 9, the executive meeting of the State Council discussed and passed the scheme of controlling greenhouse gas emissions during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. Four measures of developing a low-carbon economy are included: to develop low-carbon energy sources, increase forest carbon sink, improve public participation and widely expand international cooperation. The scheme also formulates specific targets for various local governments to reduce energy intensity.
Gao Guangsheng, inspector of the Department of Climate Change of the NDRC, said China will do its utmost to fulfill the commitment of reducing emissions, setting up a carbon emission trading market, formulating statistical and assessment indicators of the low-carbon economy to evaluate performances of local government officials.
“The Chinese Government highly stresses climate change and will fulfill its commitment of reducing emissions without any bargaining,” Gao said.
More policies needed
According to Gao, China will try to establish and improve its assessment mechanism for greenhouse gas emissions as well as massive trials for low-carbon development. Besides the eight pilot cities selected by the NDRC—Tianjin, Chongqing, Shenzhen, Xiamen, Hangzhou, Nanchang, Guiyang and Baoding—the scale of low-carbon development experiment will be further expanded and various provincial-level governments can select their own pilot cities for low-carbon development. In the meantime, the country will also promote public participation so that governments at all levels, public institutions, enterprises and the public can join the campaign of low-carbon consumption.
He Jiankun, Director of the Institute of Low-Carbon Economy of Tsinghua University, said China should actively cope with the new round of technology innovation and competition featuring in low-carbon technologies, because it has more advantages now than in the past. In traditional technology fields, China falls behind developed countries and needs to introduce foreign technologies. In new energy technology fields, however, China and developed countries are synchronous in research and development. China has seen great progress in R&D investment, as well as improved level of research personnel and R&D conditions, and it even has gained advantages in many research areas.
“Since China has advanced manufacturing industries, once new technologies get mature, industrialization will develop in a high speed with low costs, bringing competitive advantages to China,” He said.
Technology innovation and competition featuring low-carbon energy technologies impose the greatest influence to enterprises. When countries worldwide are strengthening the low-carbon technology, low-carbon economic transformation will change the comparative costs, comparative prices, demand structures and production structures of enterprises and then change their comparative competitiveness. The response speed and capability of an enterprise against low-carbon economic transformation will influence its survival and prosperity in some years.
“Fortunately Chinese enterprises have recognized the core role of advanced low-carbon technologies in improving corporate competitiveness, and a large number of enterprises have started to formulate and implement low-carbon strategies and action plans,” He said. This is invigorating the development of China’s low-carbon economy.
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