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回顾性问题是指,随着渔业数据逐年加入,渔业资源评估结果如资源量或捕捞死亡系数等出现系统性偏差。多种渔业资源应用不同评估模型进行渔业资源评估,其结果常存在回顾性问题,这使得渔业资源评估的结果存在不确定性,不利于渔业资源合理的管理与开发,因此,回顾性问题是目前渔业资源评估研究中的热点与难点之一。回顾性问题的度量目前主要采用MOHNρ,产生回顾性问题的原因主要可归纳为数据错误与模型假设错误。目前,尽管有多种方法用于诊断、分析回顾性问题的成因,但这些方法均存在局限性。针对回顾性问题,渔业资源评估学者根据其研究对象的特点提出了校正回顾性问题的方法,但目前仍缺乏通用的方法或手段以校正或避免回顾性问题。在渔业资源评估中,若结果存在回顾性问题,则表明数据或模型假设存在问题。因此进行回顾性分析,是评估数据质量及检查数据与模型假设是否一致的有效手段。
The retrospective issue means that as the fishery data is added year by year, there is a systematic bias in the assessment of fishery resources such as resource stocks or fishing deaths. There are often retrospective problems in the evaluation of fishery resources by using different assessment models for different kinds of fishery resources. As a result, there are uncertainties in the results of fishery resources assessment and not conducive to the rational management and development of fishery resources. Therefore, the retrospective issue is currently One of the hot spots and difficulties in the research of fishery resources assessment. At present, the main reason for retrospective measurement is retrospective problem, which can be summarized as data errors and model assumptions. At present, although there are many ways to diagnose and analyze the causes of retrospective problems, these methods all have limitations. In view of retrospective issues, fishery resource assessment scholars have proposed a method of correcting retrospective problems according to the characteristics of their subjects. However, there are still no general methods or means to correct or avoid retrospective problems. In the fisheries resources assessment, if there are retrospective questions about the outcome, then there is a problem with the data or model assumptions. Therefore, a retrospective analysis is an effective measure to assess the quality of data and to check whether the data and model assumptions are consistent.