论文部分内容阅读
本文运用向量协整与误差修正模型,从需求的角度对近年来影响中国经济增长的几个重要因素进行了实证分析。资本存量、人力资本及电力消费每增长1个百分点,将分别拉动中国GDP增长0.081、1.133和0192个百分点。方差分解分析的结果表明,在中国GDP的变动中,短期内自身扰动项及投资扰动项的冲击将起主要作用,长期内人力资本和资本存量的冲击将起主要作用。为保持中国经济健康稳定增长,在经济政策制定或宏观调控政策选择时,要充分考虑这些变量冲击对经济增长的不同影响时限和影响力度。
In this paper, vector cointegration and error correction model, from the demand point of view of several factors that affect China’s economic growth in recent years, an empirical analysis. Each increase of 1% in capital stock, human capital and electricity consumption will drive China’s GDP growth by 0.081, 1.133 and 0192 percentage points respectively. The analysis of variance analysis shows that in the change of China’s GDP, the impact of self-disturbance items and investment disruption items will play a major role in the short term, and the impact of human capital and capital stock will play a major role in the long run. In order to maintain the healthy and steady growth of China’s economy, we must give full consideration to the different impact periods and impacts of these variables’ impact on economic growth when formulating economic policies or selecting macro-control policies.