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客观世界总是处于永恒变化之中,只有从变化中去认识它,才能对它获得更深刻的了解。从变化的性质来说,有量变与质变之分;按变化的现象来分,有必然和偶然之别。科学研究的根本任务,在于揭露隐藏在偶然现象背后的必然性。为精确起见,常需用客观的数据来描述反映事物本质的规律。其实,自古以来就是如此。打猎有个命中率的问题,播种有个出芽率的问题,患病也有患病率、死亡率、自愈率及治愈率的问题,诸如此类,不一而足。这些率的大小,可以通过观测到的频率(如百分率、千分率、十万分率等等)来估计。我们用观测频率去估计的是某种事物或现象客观上可能发生的程度,或出现的机会,即往后要经常提到的所谓概率。换言之,概率就是观测到的频率的理论数值和分布中心,是一种抽象了的概念,能用来说明事物的
The objective world is always in eternal change. Only by understanding it from change can we gain a deeper understanding of it. In terms of the nature of change, there are quantitative and qualitative changes; according to the phenomenon of change, there are inevitable and accidental differences. The fundamental task of scientific research is to expose the inevitability hidden behind the accidental phenomenon. To be precise, it is often necessary to use objective data to describe the laws that reflect the nature of things. In fact, this has been the case since ancient times. Hunting has a problem of hit rate, so there is a problem of germination rate. There are also problems with prevalence, mortality, self-healing rate and cure rate, and so on. The size of these rates can be estimated by the observed frequency (eg, percentage, per thousand, 100,000, etc.). We use observation frequencies to estimate the degree to which an object or phenomenon can occur objectively, or the chances that it will appear, that is, the so-called probability that will be mentioned frequently. In other words, probability is the theoretical value and distribution center of the observed frequency. It is an abstract concept that can be used to illustrate things.