论文部分内容阅读
从历史经验来看,由经济放缓、需求降低导致的油价调整是一个漫长过程,基本上可以判断是市场对价格预期进入一个更低区间。令人惊异的是,30多年来国际油价6次暴跌,并没有击垮国际石油公司。相反,目前国际上赫赫有名的石油巨头几乎都是在油价暴跌之后的废墟上崛起的。美国兰德公司通过对全球100强石油公司长期观察发现,每一次油价暴跌都会给市场带来重新洗牌的机会,而每次能够在这种残酷的洗牌中脱颖而出的公司,大都遵循了两条基本原则:最大程度地降低生产成本+最大规模地储备油气资产。前者着眼于当下,如何在低油价时期艰难过冬;后者立足于长远,如何在油价进入上升轨道时拥有足够的资源储备。
Judging from historical experience, the oil price adjustment caused by a slowdown in economy and a decrease in demand is a long process. Basically, it can be judged that the market is expecting prices to enter a lower range. Amazingly, international oil prices plummeted six times over the past 30 years and did not crush the international oil companies. On the contrary, the world’s most prominent oil giants are now rising almost entirely in ruins after the plunge in oil prices. Long-term observation by the top 100 petroleum companies in the United States found that every time the oil price plunges bring the market a chance of reshuffling. However, every company that can stand out in this brutal reshuffle follows the two The basic principle: to minimize production costs + the largest reserve of oil and gas assets. The former looks at the present and how to survive the winter in a period of low oil prices. The latter, based on the long run, has sufficient reserves of resources as oil prices rise.