论文部分内容阅读
从1973年每桶原油价格由3美元提高至11美元,到1979年油价被炒至每桶35美元,再到1990油价突破40美元,在今年9月突破50美元大关之前,石油价格已历经了三次飙升。 虽然,时下有些专业人士做出的不久后每桶原油价格将达到80美元的论断还为时过早,但是油价的高企已毋庸置疑。毕竟,石油储量已日益减少,在这种情况下,人们不得不再一次转移目光,寻找解决的办法。 美国《新闻周刊》日前发表了一篇 题为《价格不合适》的文章,称可再生能源目前还没有商业竞争力。 这是事实。因为在油价涨到每桶50多美元的今天,太阳能产生1千瓦时电的成本仍至少是石油的5倍。而与煤炭等更廉价的矿物燃料相比,太阳能的竞争力更差,并且技术不成熟。 因此,自上世纪60年代开始就一直在世界能源舞台上唱主角的石油,显然还会在一段时间内的能源消费中占据主导地位。 但是,这种地位却绝非不可动摇。 无论心甘与否,储量减少已让人不得不直面后石油时代的转向。据统计,1968年为全球石油储量发现高峰年,其后至今,每年的新发现储量每况愈下。现时全球每年用油大约280亿桶,其中新发现70亿桶,占1/4,亦即,自1968年以后,我们每年都在吃210亿桶的“老本”。 令世界胆颤心惊的石油危机会不会因为“老本”日益减少再度到来? 所幸人类未雨绸缪,已经为解?
Since 1973, the price of crude oil per barrel has risen from US $ 3 to US $ 11. By 1979, oil prices have been slashed to US $ 35 a barrel. By 1990, oil prices surpassed US $ 40. Before reaching the 50-US mark in September this year, oil prices have gone through Soared three times. Although it is too early to tell by some professionals that the price of crude oil will reach 80 U.S. dollars a barrel in the near future, the high oil price is beyond doubt. After all, the oil reserves have been declining. Under such circumstances, people have to shift their eyes again to find solutions. The United States, “Newsweek” recently published an article entitled “inappropriate price” article, saying that renewable energy is currently not yet commercially competitive. This is a fact. Because today’s oil prices rose more than 50 US dollars a barrel, the cost of generating 1 kWh of solar energy is still at least 5 times the cost of oil. Compared with cheaper fossil fuels such as coal, solar energy is less competitive and technologically immature. As a result, oil, which has been the protagonist of the world energy scene since the 1960s, is clearly dominating energy consumption for some time. However, this position must not be unshakable. Regardless of whether they are willing or not, the reduction of reserves has forced people to face the turning of the post-oil era. According to statistics, the peak of global oil reserves was discovered in 1968, and since then, the annual newly discovered reserves have been deteriorating. At present, there are about 28 billion barrels of oil used globally each year, of which 7 billion barrels are newly discovered, accounting for one quarter of the total. That is, since 1968, we have been eating 21 billion barrels of “old books” every year. Will the world be alarmed by the oil crisis will not be because of the “capital” diminishing again come? Fortunately, human beings take precautions, has been the solution?