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国内研究普遍认为,中国的温和性通胀上限应高于发达国家,通过观察20余年来的CPI数据,我们认为5%是我国温和性通胀的上限。尽管今年上半年以来CPI涨幅持续突破3%的警戒线,但仍低于温和性通胀的上限。
Domestic research generally believes that China’s upper limit of moderate inflation should be higher than that of developed countries. By observing the CPI data of more than 20 years, we think that 5% is the upper limit of China’s moderate inflation. Although the CPI increase continued to exceed the warning level of 3% since the first half of this year, it is still below the upper limit of moderate inflation.