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随着国家总体经济水平的不断提高,我国的财政收入显著增加,各省的地方财政收入也出现大幅增加。文章采用时间数据(1983—2014)建立VECM(向量误差修正模型)对云南省地方财政支出和私人投资之间的关系进行深入分析,最后通过观察VAR脉冲响应图,我们发现:长期来说,云南省地方财政支出对私人投资有正向作用,这与从整个国家考察财政支出对私人投资的影响是一致的。地方生产总值与私人投资之间的关系为正向关系,而协整方程的回归结果表明,居民消费支出从长期看对私人投资的正向拉动作用较大,但是云南省地方税收却挤出了私人投资。
With the continuous improvement of the overall national economic level, the fiscal revenue of our country has significantly increased, and the revenue of local governments in various provinces has also risen sharply. The article uses time data (1983-2014) to establish VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) to deeply analyze the relationship between local fiscal expenditure and private investment in Yunnan Province. Finally, by observing VAR impulse response diagram, we find that in the long run, Yunnan Provincial fiscal expenditures have a positive effect on private investment, which is consistent with the study of the impact of fiscal expenditures on private investment from across the country. The relationship between GDP and private investment is positive, while the regression of the cointegration equation shows that the consumer spending in the long run plays a more positive role in boosting private investment. However, the local tax revenue in Yunnan Province is squeezed out Private investment.