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减缓猪肉价格周期性大幅波动不仅有利于提升消费者福利水平,更有助于生猪产业的健康持续发展。本文运用有向无环图技术(DAG),并基于DAG的同期因果关系结果构建SVAR模型,采用预测方差分解方法探讨我国货币因素、猪肉供给、消费需求对猪肉价格波动的影响。研究表明:货币流动性对猪肉价格具有时滞性影响,对猪肉价格波动的贡献程度为45%,是猪肉价格波动的主要原因;其次,猪肉供给和消费需求对猪肉价格波动的解释程度相对较小,分别为6%和3%。为缓解猪肉价格周期性剧烈波动,应根据货币政策形势制定适宜的猪肉价格调控政策;尽快上市生猪期货产品,形成玉米、豆粕、生猪的期货产业链体系;创新生猪价格保险产品稳定生猪供给。
Slow cyclical fluctuations in pork prices will not only help to improve the level of consumer welfare, but also help the pig industry healthy and sustainable development. In this paper, a directed acyclic graph technique (DAG) is used to construct SVAR model based on the results of DAG causal relationship. The forecast variance decomposition method is used to explore the impact of monetary factors, pork supply and consumer demand on pork price fluctuations. The research shows that the currency liquidity has a time-lag effect on the price of pork, which contributes 45% to the fluctuation of pork price, which is the main reason of the pork price fluctuation. Secondly, the relative explanation of the pork supply and consumption demand on pork price fluctuation is relatively Small, 6% and 3% respectively. In order to alleviate the cyclical volatility of pork prices, we should formulate an appropriate pork price control policy according to the monetary policy situation; market pig futures as soon as possible to form a futures industrial chain system for corn, soybean meal and pigs; and provide innovative live pig price insurance products to stabilize pig supply.