论文部分内容阅读
位于宏观政策框架核心位置的潜在产出测算在金融危机中遭遇巨大挑战,预测的失灵严重影响了宏观调控的精确性。基于现有潜在产出测算依托的三大特征——全方位的市场有效论、产出的供给决定论与经济的长期均衡论,本文分析了危机中市场的失灵、逆萨伊定律的存在与有效需求的长期不足如何导致了潜在产出测算的失灵,并研究了发展中国家政府干预的大规模存在、供给面核算的特殊性及制度变迁的频繁性如何造成起源于发达国家的潜在产出测算方法的不适用性。最后,针对不满足传统潜在产出测算基础的市场失灵、金融泡沫化与经济停滞时期,本文提出了潜在产出测算的改良与突破思路。
The potential output measurement at the core of the macro-policy framework has encountered enormous challenges in the financial crisis, and the predicted failure has seriously affected the accuracy of macro-control. Based on the three major characteristics of the existing potential output estimation support - the omni-directional market effectiveness theory, the supply determinism theory and the economic long-term equilibrium theory, this paper analyzes the market failure in the crisis, the existence of the inverse Say’s law and How the long-term insufficiency of effective demand leads to the failure of potential output measurement and the large-scale existence of government intervention in developing countries, the particularity of supply-side accounting and the frequent changes of institutional changes have resulted in the potential output from developed countries Inapplicability of the calculation method. Finally, aiming at the market failure, the financial bubble and the economic stagnation, which do not meet the traditional measurement of potential output, this paper puts forward some suggestions for improvement and breakthrough of potential output measurement.