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保障灌区用水对维系中国粮食安全至关重要。文章在预测2020、2030年有效灌溉面积和灌溉综合定额的基础上,确立了中国农业灌溉用水的阈值。研究结果表明,2020年中国有效灌溉面积5881.5万～6115万hm2,平均为5998万hm2,2030年为5940.6万～6307万hm2,平均为6124万hm2。2020年灌溉用水阈值为3388亿～3816亿m3,平均为3600亿m3,2030年为3047亿～3803亿m3,平均3422亿m3。农业用水“零”增长思路不能满足粮食安全的需要,必须进行调整。
Safeguarding water use in irrigation areas is crucial to maintaining food security in China. Based on the prediction of the effective irrigated area and total irrigation quota in 2020 and 2030, the article establishes the threshold of agricultural irrigation water in China. The results show that by 2020 China’s effective irrigation area is 58.815-1.11 million hm2, with an average of 59.98 million hm2, and in 1950 it is 59-406,000-630.7 million hm2, with an average of 61.24 million hm2.2020 years 2020, m3, with an average of 360 billion m3 and 304.7 billion to 380.3 billion m3 in the year of 3030, with an average of 342.2 billion m3. Agricultural water “zero ” growth ideas can not meet the needs of food security, must be adjusted.