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南水北调东线工程山东段由新修渠道、原有河道及湖泊、水库共同构成。输水干线多为开敞式且与当地交通道路交叉,南四湖和梁济运河承担航运任务,交通、航运等突发事故有可能影响正常输水,因而输水安全受到多种潜在突发事故的威胁。为能够在突发事故发生后采取有效的应急控制和处置措施,降低事故造成的损失,采用核对表法对工程突发风险源进行识别,确定突发事故类型,综合利用模糊意见集中决策和层次分析法建立风险评估体系,对南水北调东线工程山东段的突发事故风险进行评估,确定各类突发事故对工程的影响程度,经评定该工程的主要风险包括陆运和航运交通事故引发的突发风险,次要风险主要包括人为投毒、自然灾害及机器故障等原因引发的各类突发风险。该成果可为后续应急控制和处置方案的制定提供决策依据,同时可为其他资料短缺地区的风险评估提供参考。
Shandong section of East Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project consists of newly-built channels, original channels, lakes and reservoirs. Most of the water conveyance lines are open and cross over with local traffic roads. Nansi Lake and Liangji Canal undertake shipping tasks. Traffic, shipping and other emergencies may affect normal water conveyance, so water diversion is subject to a variety of potential bursts The threat of an accident. In order to be able to take effective emergency control and disposal measures after the accident, to reduce the damage caused by the accident, the use of checklist method to identify sources of project risk of sudden accidents, determine the type of accident, comprehensive utilization of fuzzy opinions and decision-making and level Analysis method to establish a risk assessment system to assess the risk of sudden accidents in Shandong section of the Eastern Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project to determine the impact of various types of emergencies on the project. The major risks assessed for the project include land-based and shipping traffic accidents Risk, secondary risks include human poisoning, natural disasters and machine failure caused by various types of unexpected risks. The results can provide decision-making basis for the formulation of follow-up emergency control and disposal programs and provide references for risk assessment in other data-deficient areas.