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本文通过对以往经典经济增长理论的总结,发现它们都是从长期角度给予一国经济增长的战略指引,缺乏检测短期经济波动的能力。因此本文用多元回归计量方法以货币流速建立了测度短期经济波动的模型,并通过对其中变量的分析对比,发现了可以预测经济衰退、警惕由通胀向通缩剧烈变化的先验变量,以此给出一国短期经济发展的战术指导,有助于货币当局及时识别通胀性泡沫并及时对此做出反应。
Based on the summary of past classical economic growth theories, this paper finds that they are all strategic guidelines that give a country a long-term economic growth and lack the ability to detect short-term economic fluctuations. Therefore, this paper established a model to measure the short-term economic fluctuations by using the multiple regression method with the currency flow rate. By analyzing and comparing the variables, we found the prior variables that can predict the economic recession and guard against the dramatic change from inflation to deflation Tactical guidance for short-term economic development in a country helps monetary authorities recognize inflationary bubbles in a timely manner and respond promptly.