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为了量化人民币汇率和累计FDI对我国出口的影响,笔者运用计量模型分析方法,采用LM检验和协整检验进行实证研究。结果发现:累计FDI增长和汇率的变动都对我国出口有所影响,但作用形式大不相同。累计FDI每增长10%,可带动出口增长1.02%,FDI的变动对出口的变动影响不大;汇率每增长1%,出口减少4.27%,也就是说人民币升值会带动出口的增长,而且汇率的变动对出口的变动有较大的影响。
In order to quantify the impact of RMB exchange rate and accumulated FDI on China’s exports, the author uses an econometric model analysis method and uses LM test and cointegration test to conduct empirical research. As a result, it was found that cumulative FDI growth and changes in exchange rates have had an impact on China’s exports, but the modes of action have been very different. For each 10% increase in accumulated FDI, the export growth can be driven by 1.02%. The change in FDI has little effect on the export. For every 1% increase in exchange rate, the export declines by 4.27%, which means that the appreciation of the renminbi will drive the growth of exports, and the exchange rate Changes have a greater impact on changes in exports.