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一个简单的客观方法是运用南方涛动的气压变化来予报太平洋赤道干旱带异常大雨,采用了达尔文站79年的海平面气压资料和赤道太平洋上许多小岛的降水资料。这个方法基于考虑气压逐年的变化,可以提前1—8个月予报干旱带的中部和西部大部分地区的大雨,准确率约为76％。看来似乎气压距平量和这种大雨的强度(时间或空间)之间也有某种程度的相关性。以伴有厄尼诺(ElNino)发生的那些例子的检验指出,厄尼诺通常比赤道太平洋干旱带中部和西部的大雨要早几个月,且比达尔文站发生明显的气压偏差为早。但厄尼诺的发展程度并不与达尔文站气压偏差数量相关。厄尼诺的早期出现,指出厄尼诺与伴随南方涛动的气压变移的变化量可能在某种程度上都受另外一些因子的影响,例如南极环流的大气和海洋环流的变化以及在东热带太平洋半球之间的相互作用。
A simple and objective method is to report abnormal heavy rains in the equatorial arid Pacific Ocean using the pressure changes in the Southern Oscillation, using 79-year sea level pressure data from Darwin Station and precipitation data from many islands in the equatorial Pacific. This method, based on a yearly change in air pressure, can give heavy rain to the central and western parts of the arid zone at about 1-8 months ahead of schedule, with an accuracy rate of about 76%. It seems that there is some degree of correlation between the pressure anomaly and the intensity (time or space) of this heavy rain. Tests with examples of what happened with El Niño point out that EINNO is usually a few months earlier than the heavy rains in the central and western equatorial Pacific arid, and earlier than the apparent pressure deviation at Darwin. However, the extent of Ernie’s development is not related to the number of pressure deviations at Darwin. The early appearance of Emino pointed out that changes in the pressure changes between Emino and the Southern Oscillation may be affected to some extent by other factors such as changes in the circulation of the Antarctic circulation in the atmosphere and the oceans, Interactions between the tropical Pacific hemisphere.