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从地震活动性分析对张北－尚义地震所作的中长期预测进行总结与反思。首先通过张北－尚义地震所在的燕山－渤海北西向地震带的地震活动性分析，对该带作了分段，并确认了张家口段为未来中强震的危险段。第二步通过ＴＢＢ法计算确认了该段内２８号潜源为１～３ａ的危险区，该区靠近张北震中区，此次地震震中即在使用资料范围内。第三步，由对预报结果的反思，提出应加强中强地震构造背景的研究，特别要注意区域地震活动。
Based on the analysis of seismicity, the mid-long term prediction of Zhangbei-Shangyi earthquake is summarized and reconsidered. Firstly, the seismic activity of the Yanshan-Bohai west-north seismic belt where the Zhangbei-Shangyi earthquake was located was subdivided into segments and the Zhangjiakou segment was identified as the dangerous segment of the future moderate-strong earthquakes. In the second step, the TBB method confirms the danger zone of No. 28 potential source is 1 ~ 3a in this section, which is close to the middle of Zhangbei epicenter. The epicenter of the epicenter is within the scope of the used data. In the third step, from the reflection of the forecast results, it is suggested that the research on the tectonic setting of the strong earthquakes should be strengthened, especially the regional seismic activity.