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基于向量误差纠正模型,本文利用随机冲击的持久性—暂时性分解方法,实证分析了持久性冲击和暂时性冲击对中国居民消费、资产和收入波动的影响方式。研究发现,从长期来看,持久性冲击几乎可以完全解释中国居民消费、资产和收入的波动;从短期(1~2个季度)来看,暂时性冲击能够解释消费波动30%~70%的份额,但却只能解释资产和收入波动不足10%的份额。本文的研究表明,解释我国居民长期消费增长的原因在于资产和收入的快速增长,但短期内资产和收入的增长对我国居民消费的促进作用相对有限。本文建议,为构建促进我国居民消费增长的长效机制,从短期来看,必须通过改善消费环境和消费预期,努力消除引起消费波动的各种外生因素;但从长期来看,则需要从根本上提高家庭的资产和收入水平。此外,本文的研究也为解释中国消费波动大于产出波动提供了一个独特视角。
Based on the vector error correction model, this paper uses the persistence-temporary decomposition method of stochastic shock to empirically analyze the impact of persistence and temporary shocks on the consumption, assets and income of Chinese residents. In the long run, the study finds that lasting shocks can almost completely explain China’s household consumption, asset and income volatility. From a short-term (1-2 quarters) perspective, the temporary shock can explain a 30% -70% Share, but only explain the share of assets and income fluctuations less than 10%. The research in this paper shows that the reason for explaining the long-term consumption growth of residents in our country lies in the rapid growth of assets and incomes. However, the short-term growth of assets and income has a limited effect on the promotion of household consumption in China. This paper suggests that in order to construct a long-term mechanism to promote the growth of household consumption in the short run, we must strive to eliminate various exogenous factors that cause fluctuations in consumption in the short run. However, in the long run, Fundamentally improve the family’s assets and income levels. In addition, the research in this article also provides a unique perspective for explaining that the consumption fluctuation in China is greater than the output fluctuation.