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分析了离散时段下高速公路施工区的交通状况,通过离散施工时段,比较了各时间段内施工区容量和交通需求的关系,建立了各个时间段相应的用户费用计算模型。分析了高速公路施工区用户费用的非确定因素,根据非确定因素的概率分布值,通过蒙特卡罗模拟对用户费用的波动区间进行预测,并以清连高速公路为例进行实例验证。计算结果表明:应用提出的模型,白天施工时段的用户费用均值为193 148 021元,最大值与最小值分别为466 820 060、117 342 849元,夜晚施工时段的用户费用均值为1 795 047元,最大值与最小值分别为3 443 468、1 417 274元。提出的模型能更好地体现非确定因素的影响。
The traffic condition of expressway construction area in discrete time is analyzed. Through the discrete construction period, the relationship between construction area capacity and traffic demand in each time period is compared and the corresponding user cost calculation model is established. This paper analyzes the uncertain factors of users’ fees in expressway construction area. Based on the probability distribution value of non-deterministic factors, the Monte Carlo simulation is used to predict the fluctuation range of user fees, and the example of Qinglian Expressway is taken as an example to verify. The calculation results show that the average user cost during the construction period is 193,148,021 yuan, the maximum and minimum values are 466,820,060,117,342,849 yuan respectively, and the average user cost during the construction period is 1,795,047 yuan , The maximum and minimum values were 3 443 468,1 417 274 yuan respectively. The proposed model can better reflect the impact of non-deterministic factors.